Introduction
In recent years, the United Kingdom has become one of the most significant destinations for refugees, migrants, and asylum seekers in Europe; however, the lived experience of many of these individuals has been marked less by security and social integration than by uncertainty and instability. A portion of asylum seekers enter UK territory through dangerous routes, such as crossing the English Channel in small boats, and are subsequently kept for months or even years in a state of limbo—accommodated in hotels, temporary facilities, or overcrowded reception centres—without a clear prospect regarding their future. Migration and asylum have become central axes of political and media contestation in the United Kingdom, with various political parties, particularly during electoral periods, using the issue to influence public opinion and to emphasise narratives focused on border control.
In this context, civil society organizations, human rights institutions, and segments of the academic community have warned against the normalization of security-oriented language in relation to migrants and asylum seekers and its impact on the rise of racism, Islamophobia, and xenophobia. Alongside these concerns, the United Kingdom government’s new migration plan—particularly in the field of asylum—presents a more restrictive vision for the future of the country’s migration and asylum system. This plan emphasises repeated reviews of refugee status, limitations on access to permanent residence, increased obstacles to family reunification, and reductions in subsistence and welfare support. Collectively, these measures risk further increasing legal uncertainty, vulnerability, and the human and rights-based precariousness faced by refugees and asylum seekers.
Incidents
On Saturday, 15 November, the United Kingdom announced that it would initiate the largest review of asylum-related policies in its contemporary history[1]. The UK’s new migration plan, formally titled “Restoring Order and Control: A statement on the government’s asylum and returns policy[2],” was presented on 17 November 2025 by the Home Office. Under this plan, a series of changes are to be implemented within the asylum and migration system. Although the plan has been introduced with the stated objective of controlling borders and restoring order to the asylum system, its substance effectively transforms asylum from a relatively stable form of protection into a temporary, conditional, and reviewable mechanism. In practice, the plan appears aimed at reducing the United Kingdom’s attractiveness to irregular migrants and facilitating their removal[3].
Under these policies, refugees’ status will be subject to periodic reassessment, and where a country of origin is deemed “safe,” the possibility of return will be made available. In addition, the pathway to permanent residence will become longer and more difficult. The clause concerning the “safety of the country of origin” appears to have been specifically included with regard to migrants and refugees from Syria, in order to facilitate their return through legal channels following the change in the country’s political system. At the same time, subsistence and welfare support for certain groups of asylum seekers will be reduced, and the interpretation of human rights norms—particularly Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)—will be narrowed in order to ease deportations.
Under Article 8 of the ECHR, everyone has the right to respect for their private and family life, their home, and their correspondence, and no public authority may interfere with the exercise of this right except insofar as such interference is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society, including in the interests of national security, public safety, or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others[4]. Alongside these restrictions, the government has also promised to create several legal and controlled pathways for the entry of certain categories of asylum seekers.
Previously, individuals who entered the United Kingdom were granted state support for a period of five years, after which they could apply for permanent residence. Under the new plan, however, individuals may be required to wait up to 20 years before becoming eligible for permanent residence in the United Kingdom. Moreover, individuals whose applications have been approved and who are currently residing in the UK will be required to reapply to remain in the country every 2.5 years[5], with each application subject to renewed assessment. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, announced that the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) will increase from five to ten years, affecting approximately 1.6 million migrants who have entered the United Kingdom since 2021[6].
According to the new plan, the more restrictive pathway to remaining in the United Kingdom will not be limited to asylum seekers and irregular migrants, but will also apply to students and even seasonal workers currently living in the country. From 11 November 2025, international students have been required to demonstrate higher financial thresholds to cover their living costs during their studies. The duration of the Graduate visa has been reduced from two years to 18 months for most graduates, while only holders of a doctoral degree will retain a three-year visa period[7]. The amounts that students must present as evidence of maintenance funds have increased for those applying under the Student route on or after 11 November 2025, amounting to £1,529 per month in London and £1,171 per month outside London[8].
One of the most controversial elements of the proposed migration plan is the use of artificial intelligence to determine the age of migrants and asylum seekers. This is despite the fact that UK law and Home Office guidance explicitly state that age cannot be assessed solely on the basis of appearance, except in the “clearest cases” (where an individual is obviously a child or obviously an adult). In theory, facial age estimation (FAE) technology may only be used as a supplementary tool in age assessments and must not serve as the sole basis for decision-making[9]. This implies that the Home Office’s migration plan would, in practice, violate its own internal guidance.
There is already evidence of racial bias in artificial intelligence systems. In Australia, clear evidence has emerged regarding racial bias in the use of AI for age estimation (in the context of restricting children’s access to social media rather than asylum procedures). These tests were conducted by a British company and demonstrated that racial bias within the system reduced the accuracy of assessments for certain groups[10]. In response, Angela Eagle, Minister of State for Border Security and Asylum, stated: “We have concluded that the most cost-effective option to pursue is likely to be facial age estimation, a method through which artificial intelligence technology can provide an age estimate with a defined level of accuracy for an individual whose age is uncertain or disputed[11].”
It appears that, following a series of unsuccessful and heavily criticised policies in recent years—policies that failed to achieve the desired political and social outcomes while imposing significant costs—the United Kingdom has once again decided to revise its migration and asylum system. According to available data, the financial cost of the UK asylum system has increased tenfold over the past decade, rising from £538 million in 2011–2012 to approximately £5.38 billion in 2023–2024[12]. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate that net migration—defined as the number of people entering the country minus the number leaving—had remained relatively stable at around 200,000 to 300,000 persons per year since 2011. However, following the implementation of Brexit in 2020, there was a significant increase in the number of undocumented migrants entering the United Kingdom. ONS data show that net migration in the 12-month period ending in June 2023 reached 906,000[13].
As of June 2025, 32,059 asylum seekers were being accommodated in hotels, representing an 8 percent increase compared to the previous year[14]. In addition to these figures, current Home Office data indicate that the number of individuals expected to obtain permanent residence between 2025 and 2030 stands at 1,765,000 migrants[15]. This represents an additional financial burden for the UK government—one that these policies appear designed to bring to an end. Beyond the costs associated with previous policies, the current Labour government is facing what it has described as a “broken” asylum system, a situation that has contributed to growing support for right-wing parties[16].
Challenges and Responses
- Public Opinion Alignment
One of the major challenges concerning the situation of asylum seekers in the United Kingdom is the alignment of a segment of British society with calls for stricter measures against incoming migrants and more decisive deportations. Opinion polls indicate that the country is deeply divided on this issue. Nevertheless, a survey conducted in August 2025 showed that 45 percent of Britons support the idea that no new migrants should be accepted and that a large number of those who have arrived in recent years should be required to leave the country. Jenny Fenwick, a 56-year-old administrative assistant at a London train station, told Reuters: “I think asylum seekers come here because they know they’re going to be given accommodation, money and so on, and basically a good life[17].”
In this context, several street protests have taken place in recent years outside hotels accommodating asylum seekers, with participants demanding an end to these arrangements and the removal of individuals from such facilities. According to police statements, a rally organised by far-right parties in mid-September 2025 in London brought together up to 150,000 people[18].
- Domestic Reactions
Reforms to the United Kingdom’s asylum system have triggered strong criticism within the Labour Party, while receiving support from political rivals. Nadia Whittome, Labour MP for Nottingham, described the policies as “cruel and nightmarish”, stating: “It is shameful that a Labour government is destroying the rights and protections that some people desperately need after enduring unimaginable suffering. Would we expect to be treated this way if we were fleeing for our lives? Of course not.”
While some political opponents have argued that Shabana Mahmood’s plan does not go far enough, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, expressed support for the Home Secretary, stating: “What we are seeing from the Labour government are steps in the right direction, and we want to encourage them along this path.” Richard Tice, deputy leader of the far-right Reform UK party, sarcastically remarked—referring to divisions within the Labour Party—that Ms Mahmood appeared to be “submitting a membership application to our party.” He added, however, that he would need to see the full details of the government’s migration plan before offering a final assessment[19].
In response to reports regarding the potential use of artificial intelligence–based facial assessments to determine the age of unaccompanied asylum seekers, a spokesperson for the British Association of Social Workers (BASW) stated: “While we all want faster and simpler solutions, the reality is that age assessment is a complex process and should not be reduced through shortcuts. Social workers trained in age assessment in accordance with the Merton model are highly skilled and well-trained professionals with strong capabilities in determining age and safeguarding individuals’ rights and dignity. These standards must never be sacrificed in pursuit of quicker outcomes. Moreover, it remains unclear how accurate facial age estimation technology truly is, and there is therefore serious doubt as to its real benefits. We therefore urge the government, before fully committing to the use of this technology, to clarify how it intends to measure its effectiveness and to work with us to understand the perspectives of social workers prior to making a final decision[20].”
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) also issued a statement warning about the impact of the government’s new migration plan on the UK’s medical and nursing workforce. The statement called on ministers to abandon plans that would double the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), arguing that such measures would deepen workforce shortages and place patient care at risk. The RCN urged the government to scrap policies that generate instability, financial hardship, and exacerbate the nursing workforce crisis, thereby threatening patient care. According to the statement, up to 50,000 migrant nurses may leave the United Kingdom if the government proceeds with plans to increase the qualifying period for permanent residence from five to ten years—a warning based on the College’s latest findings.
The RCN stated that these measures amount to a betrayal of migrant nurses, many of whom came to the United Kingdom in 2020 to help address the COVID-19 pandemic, but who are now facing uncertainty regarding their status, value, and future in the country. Professor Nicola Ranger, General Secretary and Chief Executive of the RCN, stated: “This is not how you reward them; this is a betrayal. Our international colleagues deserve clarity about their futures, not to be used as political tools while being denied support, despite working in public services and paying taxes[21].”
- International Reactions
Human Rights Watch addressed the UK government’s plan to impose further restrictions on migrants in a dedicated report. The report noted that Shabana Mahmood’s new policy on asylum and returns is outwardly framed as “restoring order”, but in reality represents a serious retreat from the humane and pragmatic approach that the Labour Party had promised voters. The policy constructs a system in which humanity and legal obligations are conditional, protection is temporary, and belonging to society is not recognised but must instead be earned. Family reunification will no longer be automatically guaranteed, and refugees are expected to live with the constant awareness that their security can be withdrawn at any time.
However, under the 1951 Refugee Convention, the cessation of refugee status is permitted only when the “fundamental causes of displacement have genuinely ceased”—a stringent standard that places the burden of proof on states, not on refugees. Despite Mahmood’s efforts to present these measures as a means of “restoring public confidence,” the policies demonstrate a willingness to sacrifice the most vulnerable people for political expediency. Migration is framed as a threat to national stability, accompanied by promises of harsher controls—a narrative inspired by populist right-wing discourse that reinforces a “hostile environment” for migrants. The Labour Party risks weakening humanity and treating cruelty as the only legitimate form of control. This approach is not pragmatism; it is capitulation. This is a moment in which the government and the Labour Party must confront their own existential truths and values[22].
The UK office of Amnesty International also warned against the government’s migration plan. The organisation condemned the government’s announcements on asylum reforms, cautioning that these measures signal a dangerous slide toward disregarding fundamental human rights—rights that appear to be treated as optional, depending on who a person is. In response to the Home Secretary’s statement in the House of Commons, Amnesty International stated that this package of reforms amounts to a historic weakening of asylum protections, including the transformation of refugee status into a temporary and insecure system, the removal of the state’s duty to support individuals who would otherwise fall into extreme poverty, and the newly declared intention to deport families even in cases where children have grown up and put down roots in the United Kingdom.
The organisation warned that, while ministers claim they intend to remain within the framework of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), their actions in practice undermine it. Amnesty International stated that this approach erodes respect for the United Kingdom’s human rights obligations and paves the way for future governments to withdraw from these commitments altogether. Steve Valdez-Symonds, Director of Refugee and Migrant Rights at Amnesty International UK, stated: “The Home Secretary’s migration and asylum plans are cruel, divisive, and wholly detached from even the most basic standards of humanity. Forcing refugees into endless short-term applications, refusing visas to spouses and children, and withdrawing support from those who would otherwise be plunged into destitution will only increase chaos, raise costs, and empower human traffickers. The moment a government decides to silence fundamental rights for one group of people, it crosses a dangerous line—a line that must never be crossed. This is the point at which global protections begin to rot. Once you strip rights from one group, you permit the next group to be stripped of rights as well[23].”
Conclusion
Overall, the United Kingdom government’s new migration and asylum plan demonstrates a clear shift from a system grounded in protection, integration, and human rights obligations toward a model centred on control, securitization, and deterrence. Such an approach not only weakens the United Kingdom’s position as one of the most prominent historical advocates of international protection, but also places it in direct tension with fundamental principles of human rights. What emerges from the policy framework is not a structural reform aimed at improving procedures, but rather the production of a cycle of uncertainty, prolonged limbo, and psychological as well as economic pressure imposed on asylum seekers, students, workers, and even migrant families.
By extending pathways to permanent residence, withdrawing subsistence support, restricting family reunification, and relying on highly contested tools such as artificial intelligence–based age assessment, the plan effectively transforms asylum from an internationally recognised right into a conditional and fragile privilege. Domestic and international reactions further demonstrate that these reforms are not only incompatible with the spirit of the Refugee Convention, but are also likely to have serious consequences for social cohesion, public trust, and the stability of key sectors of the workforce, such as nursing, within the United Kingdom.
Rather than offering a sustainable solution to migration-related challenges, this package of policies reflects a deeper internal political crisis within the United Kingdom—one in which the government seeks to alleviate pressure from right-wing parties and to pre-empt their further rise by adopting increasingly restrictive measures. In practice, however, this approach risks institutionalising anti-migrant sentiment and eroding core human rights values, ultimately undermining the very principles that the United Kingdom has long claimed to uphold.
References
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[2] Home Office. (2025, November 21). Restoring Order and Control: A statement on the government’s asylum and returns policy (accessible). UK Government. From: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/asylum-and-returns-policy-statement/restoring-order-and-control-a-statement-on-the-governments-asylum-and-returns-policy
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