Introduction
In recent years, land subsidence in Iran has become one of the most significant indicators of escalating environmental crises and unsustainable land management practices. This phenomenon, which appears on the surface in the form of ground-level changes, cracks, and damage to infrastructure, is in fact a reflection of a complex set of climatic, economic, social, and managerial transformations. Iran’s location in an arid and semi-arid region, the decline in renewable water resources, climate change, and increasing pressures arising from demographic and economic development have created both natural and human conditions for the emergence of this crisis. However, land subsidence cannot be considered merely a consequence of reduced precipitation or climate change; rather, it is largely the result of an imbalance between the country’s natural capacities and existing patterns of consumption, development, and resource exploitation.
The gradual depletion of groundwater reserves, which have been extensively used over past decades to meet agricultural, industrial, and urban demands, has now generated consequences extending far beyond the water sector. Today, land subsidence has become a multidimensional issue whose impacts encompass areas ranging from the environment and food security to migration, cultural heritage, the economy, and the quality of life of communities. Examining this crisis demonstrates that addressing it requires moving beyond short-term approaches and advancing toward sustainable natural resource governance, long-term planning, and decision-making based on specialized knowledge.
Incidents
In Iran, average annual precipitation is generally one-third of the global average and half of the average precipitation in Asia. Alongside this below-average rainfall, the decline in precipitation levels compared with recent multi-year averages indicates a significant disruption of climatic conditions. Although this issue is not unique to Iran, the country’s vulnerability to climate change is considerably higher than that of many other countries. The 1.1-degree Celsius increase in the country’s average temperature, which has resulted in the reduction of natural glacier volumes and shorter snow retention periods in mountainous areas, combined with the increase in scattered and short-duration rainfall events, has affected runoff patterns and the country’s rivers[1]. By combining satellite data with various geological and hydrogeological observations, it has been estimated that 1.7 billion cubic meters (BCM) of Iran’s groundwater resources are being lost annually in an unsustainable manner[2]. Consequently, land subsidence in Iran has, in recent years, evolved from a limited geological phenomenon into a widespread crisis in the fields of environmental protection and natural resource governance.
This phenomenon, which primarily occurs as a result of excessive groundwater extraction, reduced aquifer recharge, prolonged drought, and the imbalance between consumption levels and natural capacities[3], has now affected a significant portion of the country’s plains. Studies conducted by specialized organizations indicate that many regions in central, eastern, and southern Iran, including the plains of Tehran, Isfahan, Kerman, Fars, Khorasan, and Qazvin, are experiencing significant rates of land subsidence. According to statistics from the Geological Survey of Iran (GSI), 29 provinces across the country are affected by land subsidence; a crisis that covers approximately 185,000 square kilometers, equivalent to around 11 percent of Iran’s territory, and has affected more than 380 cities and approximately 9,200 villages[4]. According to a report by the Building and Housing Research Center (BHRC), many critical infrastructures, including fuel and gas transmission pipelines, electricity pylons, highways, railways, airports, and others, are located in areas affected by land subsidence, placing many population centers across the country at risk[5].
Furthermore, in the summer of 2021, the research institute The Intel Lab described land subsidence in Tehran, the country’s largest urban settlement, as a “ticking time bomb” based on satellite imagery, representing a potential threat to the province’s millions of residents. Around the same period, the Geological Survey of Iran reported that land subsidence in some areas surrounding Tehran had reached 25 centimeters per year. However, Mohammad Haghani, an urban management expert and former member of the Tehran City Council, stated that the rate of subsidence in some parts of Tehran had reached 33 centimeters[6]. Such a situation, in addition to threatening infrastructure and human settlements, has created profound consequences for the country’s water security, agriculture, climate-induced migration, cultural heritage, and biodiversity.
- Escalation of Climate-Induced Migration
Land subsidence in Iran is gradually becoming one of the factors intensifying climate-induced migration and population displacement. In addition to land subsidence, declining groundwater levels, the degradation of agricultural production capacity, reduced livelihood security among rural communities, and the loss of habitability in certain areas have placed additional pressure on local communities. In many of the country’s plains, excessive groundwater extraction beyond the capacity of available resources and persistent drought have reduced farmers’ economic resilience and increased the tendency toward migration to major cities. In recent years, tens of thousands of people have been displaced annually, and during the devastating floods of 2019, up to 520,000 people were internally displaced due to natural disasters. In late 2024, the government announced that approximately 800,000 Iranians had been internally displaced due to issues related to climate change[7]. This is while, in 2021 and 2022, these figures stood at 42,000 and 41,000 people, respectively[8].
Among the provinces that have experienced the greatest impacts from climate-induced migration are Khuzestan, Lorestan, Isfahan, Hamadan, Kerman, Yazd, and Sistan and Baluchestan[9]. Mehdi Jamalinejad, the Mayor of Isfahan, one of the major cities affected by the land subsidence crisis with a population of more than 5 million people, stated that “land subsidence is no longer a silent earthquake; it is a volcano in the process of erupting.” In an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian, he stated that 9 major metro stations in Isfahan, 274 major fire department intersections, 328 mosques, 37 libraries, three major hospitals, one hotel, and 258 schools are located in areas with a high probability of land subsidence. Forty schools have been evacuated due to the intensification of land subsidence, and many of them have been demolished[10]. Such challenges will undoubtedly lead to costly migration patterns in cities such as Isfahan and other areas facing similar conditions.
Overall, this process not only reduces the active population and weakens local economies in areas of origin, but also increases pressure on water resources, urban infrastructure, and public services in destination areas. From this perspective, land subsidence can be regarded as part of a broader cycle in which water crises, climate change, declining livelihood opportunities, and human migration are interconnected.
- Destruction of Historical Structures and Cultural Heritage
Land subsidence in Iran is not only a threat to infrastructure and human settlements; it also poses a serious risk to the country’s historical and cultural heritage. In areas with rich historical and archaeological heritage, land subsidence has become a major concern. Many historical monuments, including Takht-e Jamshid (Persepolis), Naqsh-e Rostam in Fars Province, and Golestan Palace in southern Tehran, as well as various mosques and bazaars, have been constructed using materials that may not withstand significant land subsidence[11]. The decline in groundwater levels and the compaction of soil layers in certain historical plains have raised concerns regarding the stability of valuable monuments and heritage sites.
As mentioned above, the World Heritage Site of Takht-e Jamshid (Persepolis) and Naqsh-e Rostam in Fars Province are among the most important areas where researchers have warned about the potential impacts of land subsidence in the Marvdasht Plain. For the first time in 2023, media reports highlighted the emergence of cracks in Naqsh-e Rostam and announced that the area affected by land subsidence, with cracks ranging from 70 centimeters to half a meter, was located only 300 meters from Persepolis. The continuation of this situation could potentially damage the Persepolis archaeological complex, an issue that had previously raised concerns regarding the historical monuments of Isfahan[12].
Seyed Mehdi Mousavi Movahedi, the former Deputy Director of Historical Monuments at the General Directorate of Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts of Isfahan Province, stated in this regard that unfortunately, in central Isfahan and along the Zayandeh Rud River, where historical bridges are located, land subsidence has occurred due to the depth of the bedrock being approximately 50 meters, and that monitoring the bridges is being seriously pursued. He identified Naqsh-e Jahan Square, Jame’ Mosque of Isfahan, Si-o-se-pol Bridge, and Khaju Bridge as among the most sensitive and vulnerable monuments[13].
- Impacts on Plant and Animal Ecosystems
Land subsidence in Iran, in addition to threatening human settlements and infrastructure, has significant consequences for the country’s natural ecosystems. The severe decline in groundwater levels, which is one of the primary drivers of land subsidence, leads to the weakening of vegetation cover, reduced soil moisture, increased desertification, and the degradation of natural habitats. Many of Iran’s sensitive ecosystems, particularly wetlands and areas dependent on groundwater resources, are facing serious risks due to reduced water inflows and changes in hydrological conditions.
Despite facing water scarcity, Iran experienced an expansion of agricultural land by approximately 27,000 square kilometers (9 percent) between 1992 and 2019, accompanied by intensified cultivation in existing agricultural areas. This has been reflected in significant positive trends in vegetation cover across 28 percent of the country’s agricultural lands, highlighting the central role of agriculture as a major factor contributing to groundwater depletion, water scarcity, and land subsidence. The impacts of declining groundwater levels and disruptions to surface water systems also affect natural vegetation in salt marsh and wetland ecosystems. This process results in the degradation of natural vegetation cover, the release of dust from many former permanent wetlands and associated steppes, and the loss of rare and endemic species. Significant cases have been recorded in Turkmen Sahra (Golestan Province), Miqan Wetlands (Markazi Province), and Tashk and Bakhtegan Wetlands (Fars Province)[14].
This trend can threaten the survival of native plant species, migratory birds, and animals dependent on these ecosystems. Furthermore, land deformation, the formation of cracks and sinkholes, and changes in surface water flow patterns reduce the natural capacity of ecosystems to maintain ecological balance. Consequently, land subsidence can be considered part of a broader crisis in which declining water resources, land degradation, and biodiversity loss reinforce one another in a cascading process.
Challenges and Responses
- Absence of Long-Term Planning, Expert-Based Strategies, and a Problem-Solving Approach
In recent years, concerns regarding the unfavorable condition of the water sector have been raised more frequently than ever before. This reflects the failure of the country’s executive performance in implementing previous water-related development programs, a major cause of which can be attributed to the inappropriate, unrealistic, and unsuitable formulation of these development plans in relation to the actual conditions of the water sector[15]. Inefficient water management has caused major climatic stresses across the country, ranging from the drying up of some of Iran’s largest and most powerful rivers and its most water-rich plains to severe land subsidence, making Iran one of the countries with the highest rates of this phenomenon worldwide[16].
The land subsidence crisis in Iran is largely rooted in the absence of a comprehensive and long-term plan for water resource management and territorial development. Although land subsidence is a direct consequence of groundwater extraction beyond sustainable limits, its continuation reflects weaknesses in policymaking, the lack of coordination among responsible institutions, and the dominance of short-term approaches in natural resource management. In this regard, Dr. Ahmadreza Lahijanzadeh, Deputy Head of the Marine Environment and Wetlands Department of the Department of Environment, stated:
“Land subsidence means the end of a management cycle. When improper water resource management begins, it starts with the loss of wetlands and ends with land subsidence. In Iran, we have gone through this entire path from beginning to end, and this issue precisely reflects mismanagement[17].”
Another dimension of this challenge is the gap between scientific and expert findings and decision-making and policymaking processes in the water sector. Over the past years, researchers, academics, and specialized institutions have repeatedly warned about the consequences of excessive groundwater extraction, unsustainable agricultural development, declining aquifer capacity, and the risks of land subsidence. Nevertheless, many of these warnings have not resulted in structural reforms or changes in executive policies. In this regard, Hossein Aghamiri, a member of the Tehran City Council, stated:
“Fifty-five years have passed since the first reports of land subsidence in Iran; however, despite the warnings of experts, unfortunately, no effective legislation has so far been enacted and implemented regarding land subsidence[18].”
Scientific studies also indicate that purely technical and short-term solutions, such as increasing water supply or implementing new resource development projects, cannot resolve the crisis facing Iran’s aquifers. Instead, sustainable reduction of water consumption and reform of the water resource governance system must be prioritized. Over past decades, agricultural expansion without sufficient consideration of the ecological capacities of regions, increased groundwater extraction, and inconsistent water allocation policies have placed growing pressure on underground reserves. The construction of large dams without comprehensive environmental impact assessments, the severe decline of groundwater levels, widespread land subsidence, and the emergence of social dissatisfaction are only some of the consequences of fragmented, short-term, and accelerated policies in this field. Many implemented projects have failed to achieve long-term sustainable development goals and have caused, in some cases, irreversible damage to natural resources and local communities’ livelihoods[19].
In this regard, Bahman Yargholi, Head of the Irrigation and Drainage Department of the Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, believes that:
“Iran’s location in an arid and semi-arid climate, together with natural limitations in soil and water resources, created specific conditions from the outset. However, what transformed these conditions into a crisis was excessive pressure on natural resources and unsustainable exploitation over several decades[20].”
Overall, research on Iran’s critical areas indicates that the accumulation of uncoordinated decisions and the absence of integrated policies have been among the major factors contributing to increased well drilling, declining groundwater levels, and ultimately the emergence of land subsidence.
- Domestic Responses
The Center for Strategic Studies and Training of the Ministry of Interior of the Islamic Republic of Iran published a specialized report entitled “Assessment and Evaluation of the Factors Affecting Land Subsidence and the Role of the Ministry of Interior in Addressing This Challenge”, in which land subsidence is examined as one of the country’s most serious environmental crises. The report emphasizes that, unlike many natural hazards, land subsidence is a gradual phenomenon with extensive consequences, primarily caused by excessive groundwater extraction and weak management of groundwater exploitation. According to this report, land subsidence does not have an independent nature; rather, it is the result of the gradual degradation of aquifers and a sign of instability in Iran’s water management system.
The report further highlights the economic, social, and environmental consequences of this crisis and stresses the necessity of cooperation among executive bodies, scientific institutions, and policymakers, as well as the establishment of a coordinating institution to manage this issue. It also warns that the decline in groundwater resources will lead to reduced ecological capacity in various regions of the country and emphasizes that addressing land subsidence requires a shift from short-term measures toward sustainable water resource management[21].
Meanwhile, Shargh Daily, in an article entitled “Regarding the Country’s Water Resources Conditions”, criticized water-related policies and management approaches and considered Iran’s current water crisis to be the result of a combination of natural factors, unbalanced development, and weaknesses in water governance. By emphasizing that natural factors represent only one part of the water crisis, the report describes the current situation as a reflection of how water resources have been managed over previous decades.
The author, referring to the development of irrigation and drainage networks, the expansion of water-intensive industries and crops, and agricultural development policies implemented without sufficient consideration of water resource limitations, warns that these decisions have led in the long term to declining aquifer reserves and increasing water imbalance. The report also highlights legal gaps, the lack of a precise definition of reasonable water consumption, weak coordination among different sectors, and the necessity of developing a cropping pattern compatible with the country’s water limitations. In conclusion, the article, while criticizing sectoral approaches and attempts to assign blame among institutions, considers resolving the water crisis to require technical and legal solutions based on the sustainability of water resources[22].
Subsequently, Mehr News Agency, in a report entitled “Isfahan’s Civilization on the Brink of Land Subsidence; The Earth Has Developed a Malignant Cancer”, examined various dimensions of the land subsidence crisis in Isfahan Province and identified it as the outcome of decades of excessive groundwater extraction, declining aquifer reserves, and unsustainable water resource management.
Citing statements by experts from the Geological Survey and Mineral Exploration Organization of Iran, the report states that approximately 10,000 square kilometers of Isfahan Province, equivalent to more than 10 percent of the province’s area, are affected by severe and dangerous land subsidence, and that the rate of subsidence in some areas of the Isfahan-Borkhar Plain has reached approximately 19 centimeters per year. Iman Entezam, Head of the Hydrogeology Group at the Geological Survey and Mineral Exploration Organization, emphasized in this report that the root cause of the land subsidence crisis lies in large-scale water management failures and the depletion of aquifers due to excessive extraction.
The report also warns that land subsidence has reached Isfahan’s historical and vital areas, including Naqsh-e Jahan Square, Si-o-se-pol Bridge, Khaju Bridge, Abbasi Jameh Mosque, Shahid Beheshti Airport, and some urban infrastructures, and that the continuation of the current trend could have irreversible consequences for cultural heritage, the economy, and urban life[23].
Finally, Khabar Online News Agency, in a report on the specialized conference “Iran and the Water Scarcity Disaster: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions”, organized by the Sociology of Islamic Countries Group of the Iranian Sociological Association in cooperation with Sharif University of Technology, the Association for Promotion of Social Responsibility Culture, and the Environmental Hazards Group of the Natural Disaster Research Institute, assessed Iran’s water crisis as a phenomenon beyond a mere climatic issue and rooted in structural weaknesses in water governance.
At this conference, experts including Masoud Tajrishi, Hossein Hojjatpanah, Bahram Taheri, Athareh Nejadi, Hossein Inanloo, and Banafsheh Zahraei emphasized that the gap between water resources and consumption, unbalanced development, unsustainable agricultural policies, and the absence of a comprehensive and interdisciplinary approach are among the main factors intensifying the crisis.
Banafsheh Zahraei, a professor at the University of Tehran, noted that only approximately 26 percent of macro-level water resource policies have been implemented and considered this situation an indication of a deep gap between policy objectives and the country’s implementation capacity. Experts also emphasized the necessity of reforming water governance, moving beyond fragmented and sector-based approaches, strengthening social participation, and utilizing less-considered fields of expertise such as water economics, water law, and social sciences of water[24].
- International Responses
The Persian service of the international Turkish media outlet TRT published a report entitled “Land Subsidence in Iran: Getting Worse Every Day”, examining the expanding land subsidence crisis in Iran. The report identified this phenomenon as the result of the simultaneous interaction of several factors, including Iran’s location in a semi-arid region, intensifying climate change, declining groundwater resources, extensive water extraction for agriculture, and the continuation of unsustainable development policies.
Referring to the fact that Iran is experiencing one of the highest rates of land subsidence in the world, the report warned that the depletion of groundwater reserves could create irreversible consequences for the country’s agriculture, infrastructure, and environment. The media outlet also cited scientific studies emphasizing the risk of the disappearance of some groundwater reserves and threats to the livelihoods of a large part of Iran’s population. It further noted that population concentration in large industrial cities, rising water consumption, and increasing pressure on underground resources have intensified the process of land subsidence in these areas[25].
The Persian service of Euronews also published a report entitled “Why Increased Rainfall and River Restoration Do Not Mean the End of Iran’s Water Crisis”, examining the structural roots of Iran’s water crisis and emphasizing that temporary improvements in rainfall conditions cannot resolve the consequences of decades of unsustainable water management.
Citing the assessment of the World Resources Institute (WRI), the report identified Iran as continuing to rank among countries experiencing extremely high water stress and warned that the consumption of more than 80 percent of the country’s renewable water resources demonstrates the continuation of severe pressure on natural resources.
Referring to policies implemented over several decades, Euronews identified the large-scale expansion of agriculture, the expansion of irrigation systems, dam construction, and extensive groundwater extraction as factors that have increased water consumption beyond the country’s natural capacity. The report also emphasized that replacing traditional water management methods, such as qanats, with deep wells has not only intensified aquifer depletion but has also contributed to land subsidence and the degradation of limited freshwater reserves.
According to this report, Iran’s water crisis should not be viewed solely as a consequence of climate change, but rather as the result of an interaction between climate change and unsustainable management policies[26].
Conclusion
Land subsidence in Iran cannot be regarded merely as a natural phenomenon or a limited geological crisis; rather, it is the outcome of the gradual accumulation of decisions, policies, and development patterns that have, over recent decades, placed pressure on the ecological capacities of the country beyond their natural ability to recover.
Although climate change, declining precipitation, and intensified drought periods have contributed to the expansion of this crisis, existing evidence indicates that the roots of the current situation should primarily be sought in the governance of water resources, unsustainable exploitation of groundwater reserves, and the continuation of development patterns that have disregarded the environmental limitations of the territory in decision-making processes.
From this perspective, land subsidence represents a sign of disruption in the relationship between humans, nature, and policymaking systems; a crisis whose consequences have extended into social, economic, cultural, and legal domains. Declining water security, threats to local communities’ livelihoods, damage to infrastructure, destruction of cultural heritage, and the increase in environmentally induced migration demonstrate that land subsidence is interconnected with a range of fundamental human rights, including the right to a healthy environment, the right to sustainable access to vital resources, and the right to conditions necessary for a dignified life.
The continuation of this trend also creates a serious challenge in terms of intergenerational justice, as today’s exploitation of limited groundwater resources is, in many cases, accompanied by the transfer of environmental and social costs to future generations.
Intergenerational justice requires that the present generation manage natural resources not as consumable assets, but as a shared heritage and a trust for future generations. From this perspective, the failure to reform water consumption patterns and the delay in adopting sustainable policies are not merely examples of managerial inefficiency; rather, they may represent a weakening of ethical and legal responsibilities toward the future of Iran’s ecological integrity.
Therefore, addressing the land subsidence crisis requires moving beyond short-term and reactive approaches and advancing toward sustainable governance based on knowledge, public participation, and institutional accountability. Reforming the water management system, strengthening the role of scientific and specialized institutions, improving coordination among responsible bodies, and revising development policies are essential requirements for reducing the impacts of this crisis.
Iran’s future livability largely depends on whether decision-makers will be able to move beyond the logic of maximum resource exploitation and advance toward a model in which environmental protection, human rights, and intergenerational justice are recognized as fundamental principles of sustainable development. Otherwise, land subsidence will not only deepen today’s environmental degradation but will also leave behind a costly and irreversible legacy for future generations.
References
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